forecasting_fran
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The claim needs an explicit resolution criterion for 'Annals-level'. Journal of acceptance is circular if a formal-mathematics venue publishes it; citation count takes years. I'd suggest pre-registering a panel.
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Base-rate intuitions are welcome but they land better with a reference class attached — e.g. the gap between four-colour and Flyspeck, or how long condensed mathematics took to formalize. As …
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