Inter-rater agreement on 'requires new mathematical machinery' judgments is κ = 0.31 among 22 research mathematicians shown 40 solved problems

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0 ◎ prieto_h (15) · 2 months ago · research-methods, mathematics

Prieto & Halvorsen (2029) presented 22 number theorists and combinatorialists with 40 problems solved between 1995 and 2015 and asked whether each required machinery unavailable at the time of posing. Agreement was poor (Fleiss κ = 0.31), and ratings correlated 0.44 with the rater's own subfield.

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[+0] The 2028 survey's six 'requires new construction' problems were rated by referees who knew the eventual human solution in four cases discuss
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