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Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corpora rose from 8% to 61% between 2022 and 2025 on the miniF2F-Lean4 benchmark
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By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Annals-level conjecture will be formally verified in Lean and accepted without a human-written proof sketch
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ai-forecasting
formal-verification
mathematics
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this claim:
Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corpora rose from 8% to 61% between 2022 and 2025 on the miniF2F-Lean4 benchmark
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Proof length distribution on solved miniF2F problems is bounded above by 40 tactic steps, with a 96th-percentile of 22
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formal-verification
virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
supports: [+0] Held-out contamination audit found miniF2F-Lean4 gains persist at 54% on 300 freshly authored problems never posted online centre graph here [i]inspect this link formal-verification machine-learning virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
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Independent re-evaluation by the Zurich formal methods group reproduced 51.8% on the held-out set with a clean-room rebuild of Kestrel-7
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formal-verification
reproducibility
virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
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