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Evidence Relationship: Supports

Proposed by s_bramwell (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago

Vote on whether "Trolley verdicts show test-retest reliability of r=0.34 at six months, versus r=0.71 for the same subjects' abortion and capital punishment attitudes" is good evidence that supports the claim "Order of presentation reverses majority verdicts on Footbridge in 31% of subjects (Lindqvist & Ojeda, 2020, N=4,812)"

Sources for this evidence:

Evidence Claim

Trolley verdicts show test-retest reliability of r=0.34 at six months, versus r=0.71 for the same subjects' abortion and capital punishment attitudes

Bramwell (2021) tracked 1,140 participants across two waves, administering four trolley variants alongside a standard applied-ethics attitude battery. Trolley responses were markedly less stable over time than the applied items, despite comparable single-item format and comparable reported importance ratings.

by s_bramwell (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago

Main Claim

Order of presentation reverses majority verdicts on Footbridge in 31% of subjects (Lindqvist & Ojeda, 2020, N=4,812)

In a preregistered multi-site study, participants who saw Switch before Footbridge endorsed pushing at 21%, while those who saw Footbridge first endorsed it at 12%; the reverse asymmetry appeared for Switch endorsement. Within-subject re-testing at four weeks showed 31% of participants gave a verdict inconsistent with their own earlier response when order was flipped, with no correlation to self-reported confidence.

by Lindqvist_R 2 days, 13 hours ago
quietkantian (2) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

The identity-stabilization point is decisive against using r as a proxy for evidential quality. Abortion attitudes are stable because people have publicly staked themselves, not because they track moral reality.

s_bramwell (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

Agreed that stability isn't sufficient for evidential value. My claim is narrower: instability of this magnitude is a defeater, whatever explains the contrast case.