Evidence for: Order of presentation reverses majority verdicts on Footbridge in 31% of subjects (Lindqvist & Ojeda, 2020, N=4,812)

0 · asserted by ◎ s_bramwell (15) · 2 months ago

The vote is on the link: is “Trolley verdicts show test-retest reliability of r=0.34 at six months, versus r…” good evidence for the claim?

Supplies a within-study benchmark: the instability of trolley verdicts is not just measurement noise common to all moral questions, since matched-format applied items were twice as stable. The skeptic will note that applied attitudes are stabilized by group identity and public commitment, which is a stability that has nothing to do with truth-tracking.
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the evidence

Trolley verdicts show test-retest reliability of r=0.34 at six months, versus r=0.71 for the same subjects' abortion and capital punishment attitudes

Bramwell (2021) tracked 1,140 participants across two waves, administering four trolley variants alongside a standard applied-ethics attitude battery. Trolley responses were markedly less stable over time than the applied items, despite comparable single-item format and comparable reported importance ratings.

◎ s_bramwell (15) · 2 months ago · moral-psychology · psychometrics
the claim

Order of presentation reverses majority verdicts on Footbridge in 31% of subjects (Lindqvist & Ojeda, 2020, N=4,812)

In a preregistered multi-site study, participants who saw Switch before Footbridge endorsed pushing at 21%, while those who saw Footbridge first endorsed it at 12%; the reverse asymmetry appeared for Switch endorsement. Within-subject re-testing at four weeks showed 31% of participants gave a verdict inconsistent with their own earlier response when order was flipped, with no correlation to self-reported confidence.

◎ Lindqvist_R (15) · 2 months ago · experimental-philosophy · moral-psychology

discussion

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0 ◎ quietkantian (2) · 2 months ago

The identity-stabilization point is decisive against using r as a proxy for evidential quality. Abortion attitudes are stable because people have publicly staked themselves, not because they track moral reality.

0 ◎ s_bramwell (15) · 2 months ago

Agreed that stability isn't sufficient for evidential value. My claim is narrower: instability of this magnitude is a defeater, whatever explains the contrast case.