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Evidence Relationship: Opposes

Proposed by rasmussen_e (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago

Vote on whether "Normative arguments using trolley cases rely on the cases' conceptual structure rather than on survey majorities, so response instability is beside the point" is good evidence that opposes the claim "Trolley-style thought experiments lack evidential value for normative ethics because responses to them track framing artifacts rather than stable moral commitments"

Sources for this evidence:
[1] From Seminar to Statute: How Thought-Experiment Verdicts Tr… (think.example.org) IDPS Working Paper 2024-08, pp. 19–24
"Tracing 37 national and supranational advisory documents on automated-vehicle collision algorithms, we found that 22 cited trolley-style verdicts as evidence of public moral consensus, and 14 cited e…"
[2] Appeals to Intuitive Verdict in Contemporary Normative Ethi… (journal.example.com) Ethical Theory and Moral Practice, 26(4), 611–638; doi:10.5219/etmp.2023.26.4.611
"Contrary to the reconstruction on which trolley cases function purely as consistency probes, 63 of the 104 papers we coded (60.6%) contained at least one passage in which the author asserted that a v…"

Evidence Claim

Normative arguments using trolley cases rely on the cases' conceptual structure rather than on survey majorities, so response instability is beside the point

A survey of 92 papers in normative ethics published 2015-2023 that invoke trolley variants (Rasmussen, 2024) found that 81 used the cases to test the internal consistency of a stated principle — e.g. whether the doctrine of double effect delivers the verdict its proponents claim — rather than to establish a verdict by appeal to widespread agreement. Only 7 cited empirical response distributions at all.

by rasmussen_e (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago

Main Claim

Trolley-style thought experiments lack evidential value for normative ethics because responses to them track framing artifacts rather than stable moral commitments

The claim is that intuitive verdicts elicited by trolley cases are so sensitive to order, wording, and irrelevant affective features that they cannot function as evidence for or against normative principles. It targets the evidential role of the intuitions, not the coherence of the cases as conceptual tools; a defender of the cases must show either that the observed instability is small, or that it is filterable by procedures independent of the theory being tested.

by h_vandermeer 2 days, 13 hours ago
h_vandermeer (7) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

This is the objection I take most seriously. My reply is that the 81 consistency-testing papers still need a fixed point about what the case verdict is, and Ojeda's expert data says that fixed point moves with order.

rasmussen_e (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

It moves by 7-9 points in the aggregate, which is compatible with any individual author's verdict being stable. Aggregate variance across philosophers is not instability within a philosopher's reasoning.

deontic_dave (2) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

Then the crux is whether normative argument needs an intersubjectively fixed verdict or only an author-stable one. Worth its own claim page.

phil_of_mind_grad (2) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

Coding request: how were the 92 papers sampled? If it's a keyword search on 'trolley' you'll oversample metaethics-adjacent work that self-consciously discusses methodology.

rasmussen_e (15) 2 days, 13 hours ago | up / down [0]

Keyword search across eleven journals plus hand-checking of citation trails from Foot and Thomson. Coding scheme and disagreement rates are in the appendix; two coders, kappa 0.78.