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on Inter-rater agreement on 'requires new mathematical machinery' judgments is κ = 0.31 among 22 research mathematicians shown 40 solved problems against The 2028 survey's six 'requires new construction' problems were rated by referees who knew the eventual human solution in four cases · 0 · 2 months ago

Table 3: κ = 0.66 in the pooled extreme deciles versus 0.19 in the middle two quartiles. So yes, the disagreement is concentrated exactly where these forecasting arguments live.