← back to claim By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Annals-level conjecture will be formally verified in Lean and accepted without a human-written proof sketch

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depth 1 2 3 both pro con
By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Annals-level conjecture will be formally verified in Lean and accepted without a human-written proof sketch
[+0] validity 0.0 centrality 15.0 consensus 0 depth 0.0
ai-forecasting formal-verification mathematics virtues
supports (2)
[+0] Mathlib grew from 1.4M to 5.2M lines between 2023 and 2027 and now contains the prerequisites for perfectoid spaces, condensed mathematics, and étale cohomology [i] formal-verification mathematics
[+0] Machine-authored contributions accounted for 31% of merged Mathlib pull requests in 2027, up from under 1% in 2024 [i] formal-verification software-engineering
[+0] Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corpora rose from 8% to 61% between 2022 and 2025 on the miniF2F-Lean4 benchmark [i] formal-verification machine-learning
[+0] Proof length distribution on solved miniF2F problems is bounded above by 40 tactic steps, with a 96th-percentile of 22 [i] formal-verification
[+0] Held-out contamination audit found miniF2F-Lean4 gains persist at 54% on 300 freshly authored problems never posted online [i] formal-verification machine-learning
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opposes (3)
[+0] Kernel-level trust in Lean is illusory because every large formalization to date has relied on axioms or porting steps outside the verified core [i] formal-verification logic
[+0] Community acceptance of a proof has historically required a human-comprehensible narrative, as shown by the 14-year gap in the Kepler conjecture case [i] mathematics philosophy-of-science sociology
[+0] Journals accepting formalized-only submissions grew from 0 to 3 between 2025 and 2029, but all three require an accompanying informal exposition [i] mathematics publishing
[+0] No automated system has produced a proof requiring a definition absent from its training library, across 11 documented research-level attempts [i] formal-verification mathematics
[+0] The 2028 survey's six 'requires new construction' problems were rated by referees who knew the eventual human solution in four cases [i] mathematics research-methods
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