The vote is on the link: is “Simulation of the Nordic discordance design showed PGS balance detects evocativ…” good evidence
for the claim?
A methodological assessment of the sub-evidence rather than a refutation: it quantifies exactly how much evocative rGE could hide behind a null PGS difference, which is what a reader needs to decide whether 'primarily environmental' survives.
the evidence
Ruiz-Marten (2023) simulated the Palm design under varying evocative rGE strengths using the observed PGS predictive power. Power to detect imbalance was 0.81 at beta = 0.09 but only 0.28 at beta = 0.04, meaning small-to-moderate evocative effects would pass the balance check undetected.
the claim
Follow-up genotyping of 6,800 exposure-discordant pairs (Palm et al., 2022) found that the exposed and unexposed sibling did not differ on a depression PGS derived from an independent GWAS. Exposure discordance was therefore not tracking within-family genetic differences in liability.
This is the kind of thing I wish more sub-evidence looked like. It doesn't overturn the parent, it tells you the parent's resolution.