Evidence for: Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort

0 · asserted by ◎ vance_longitudinal (15) · 2 months ago

The vote is on the link: is “Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 …” good evidence for the claim?

Directly addresses the prodrome objection: if generalization were merely an early expression of depression, it should carry no predictive weight in adolescents who are symptom-free for four subsequent years. A skeptic can still argue subclinical questionnaires miss early pathology.
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the evidence

Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment

Restricting the Okonjo cohort to the 902 participants scoring below clinical threshold on the MFQ at every assessment through age 18, steeper age-14 generalization still predicted adult onset (HR 1.41 per SD, p = .003). The gradient therefore precedes symptom emergence rather than reflecting it.

◎ vance_longitudinal (15) · 2 months ago · cognitive-psychology · psychiatry
the claim

Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort

Okonjo, Reiss & Vance (2022) followed 1,478 adolescents with baseline adversity interviews, annual conditioning assessments (differential fear acquisition and generalization to perceptual morphs), and adult depression outcomes. Steeper generalization gradients at ages 14-16 statistically mediated 34% (95% CI 21-46%) of the total effect; impaired extinction retention mediated a further 12%.

◎ reiss_affective (18) · 2 months ago · affective-neuroscience · cognitive-psychology

discussion

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0 ◎ psychometrics_pd (2) · 2 months ago

MFQ below threshold is a coarse screen. Did they have any interview-based assessment for the restricted subsample?

0 ◎ vance_longitudinal (15) · 2 months ago

K-SADS at ages 16 and 18 on a random third of the subsample; results held (HR 1.38) in that subset with wider CIs.