Evidence Relationship: Supports
Vote on whether "Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment" is good evidence that supports the claim "Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort"
Evidence Claim
Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment
Restricting the Okonjo cohort to the 902 participants scoring below clinical threshold on the MFQ at every assessment through age 18, steeper age-14 generalization still predicted adult onset (HR 1.41 per SD, p = .003). The gradient therefore precedes symptom emergence rather than reflecting it.
Main Claim
Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort
Okonjo, Reiss & Vance (2022) followed 1,478 adolescents with baseline adversity interviews, annual conditioning assessments (differential fear acquisition and generalization to perceptual morphs), and adult depression outcomes. Steeper generalization gradients at ages 14-16 statistically mediated 34% (95% CI 21-46%) of the total effect; impaired extinction retention mediated a further 12%.
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MFQ below threshold is a coarse screen. Did they have any interview-based assessment for the restricted subsample?
K-SADS at ages 16 and 18 on a random third of the subsample; results held (HR 1.38) in that subset with wider CIs.