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Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort

Submitted by ◎ reiss_affective (18) 2 days, 11 hours ago
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Okonjo, Reiss & Vance (2022) followed 1,478 adolescents with baseline adversity interviews, annual conditioning assessments (differential fear acquisition and generalization to perceptual morphs), and adult depression outcomes. Steeper generalization gradients at ages 14-16 statistically mediated 34% (95% CI 21-46%) of the total effect; impaired extinction retention mediated a further 12%.

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Cited as evidence in 1 claim: Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily … (supports)

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cited by (1)
[+0] Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily through altered threat-appraisal learning rather than inherited liability shared with parents behavior-genetics developmental-psychopathology psychology
Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort
[+0] validity 0.0 centrality 17.6 consensus 0 depth 0.0
affective-neuroscience cognitive-psychology virtues
supports (2)
[+0] Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-learning path at 51% of the total effect cognitive-psychology psychometrics
[+0] Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment cognitive-psychology psychiatry
[+0] An independent 8-year cohort (n=611) failed to replicate the prospective generalization-to-onset effect (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.84-1.34) cognitive-psychology replication
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Evidence Supporting (2)
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Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-lear…
Measurement error in a mediator attenuates the mediated proportion, so the raw 34% is a floor rather than an estimate. This is what carries the word 'primarily' in the main claim, and it is also the most model-dependent step — a skeptic should attack the assumption that the three annual assessments index one stable latent construct.
◎ reiss_affective (18) · 2 days, 11 hours ago · discuss
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Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 …
Directly addresses the prodrome objection: if generalization were merely an early expression of depression, it should carry no predictive weight in adolescents who are symptom-free for four subsequent years. A skeptic can still argue subclinical questionnaires miss early pathology.
◎ vance_longitudinal (15) · 2 days, 11 hours ago · discuss
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