Evidence Relationship: Supports
Vote on whether "Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-learning path at 51% of the total effect" is good evidence that supports the claim "Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort"
Evidence Claim
Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-learning path at 51% of the total effect
Using test-retest reliability of 0.62 for the composite conditioning index across three annual assessments, the latent-variable respecification raises the mediated proportion from 34% to 51% (95% CI 33-69%). Model fit was acceptable (CFI 0.96, RMSEA 0.048).
Main Claim
Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort
Okonjo, Reiss & Vance (2022) followed 1,478 adolescents with baseline adversity interviews, annual conditioning assessments (differential fear acquisition and generalization to perceptual morphs), and adult depression outcomes. Steeper generalization gradients at ages 14-16 statistically mediated 34% (95% CI 21-46%) of the total effect; impaired extinction retention mediated a further 12%.
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Treating annual conditioning assessments as parallel indicators of a time-invariant latent trait is a strong assumption when the whole theory says the trait is shaped by ongoing experience. Any measurement-invariance testing?
Partial scalar invariance held across waves; two intercepts had to be freed. Reported in the supplement, and yes, that weakens the parallel-indicator story.