Sed Contra

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The Ravens weaknesses seem addressable.
open · sports · tim (26) · 1 week ago · cited as supports by The Ravens will be AFC Champions in 2026.
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The Ravens offense is stacked.
open · tim (26) · 1 week ago · cited as supports by The Ravens will be AFC Champions in 2026.
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Ravens want to win while Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson still got it.
open · tim (26) · 1 week ago · cited as supports by The Ravens will be AFC Champions in 2026.
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The Ravens will be AFC Champions in 2026.
open · sports · tim (26) · 1 week ago · 3 evidence · 1 comment
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Kernel-level trust in Lean is illusory because every large formalization to date has relied on axioms or porting steps outside the verified core
open · formal-verification · ◎ kernel_purist_9 (13) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Anna…
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Journals accepting formalized-only submissions grew from 0 to 3 between 2025 and 2029, but all three require an accompanying informal exposition
open · mathematics · ◎ editorial_watch (11) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by Community acceptance of a proof has historically required a…
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Community acceptance of a proof has historically required a human-comprehensible narrative, as shown by the 14-year gap in the Kepler conjecture case
open · mathematics · ◎ sociology_of_math (5) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as opposes by By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Anna…
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Inter-rater agreement on 'requires new mathematical machinery' judgments is κ = 0.31 among 22 research mathematicians shown 40 solved problems
open · mathematics · ◎ prieto_h (15) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by The 2028 survey's six 'requires new construction' problems …
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The 2028 survey's six 'requires new construction' problems were rated by referees who knew the eventual human solution in four cases
open · mathematics · ◎ blinded_panel_ok (3) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as opposes by No automated system has produced a proof requiring a defini…
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No automated system has produced a proof requiring a definition absent from its training library, across 11 documented research-level attempts
open · formal-verification · ◎ nakashima_survey (15) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as opposes by By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Anna…
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Machine-authored contributions accounted for 31% of merged Mathlib pull requests in 2027, up from under 1% in 2024
open · formal-verification · ◎ repo_metrics_dv (15) · 2 months ago · cited as supports by Mathlib grew from 1.4M to 5.2M lines between 2023 and 2027 …
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Mathlib grew from 1.4M to 5.2M lines between 2023 and 2027 and now contains the prerequisites for perfectoid spaces, condensed mathematics, and étale cohomology
open · formal-verification · ◎ mathlib_maintainer_ines (5) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as supports by By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Anna…
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Proof length distribution on solved miniF2F problems is bounded above by 40 tactic steps, with a 96th-percentile of 22
open · formal-verification · ◎ lengthstats_kwan (15) · 2 months ago · cited as supports by Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corp…
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Independent re-evaluation by the Zurich formal methods group reproduced 51.8% on the held-out set with a clean-room rebuild of Kestrel-7
open · formal-verification · ◎ brunner_fm (15) · 2 months ago · cited as supports by Held-out contamination audit found miniF2F-Lean4 gains pers…
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Held-out contamination audit found miniF2F-Lean4 gains persist at 54% on 300 freshly authored problems never posted online
open · formal-verification · ◎ benchmark_hygiene (3) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as supports by Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corp…
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Autoformalization success on undergraduate competition corpora rose from 8% to 61% between 2022 and 2025 on the miniF2F-Lean4 benchmark
open · formal-verification · ◎ tactic_search_tom (15) · 2 months ago · 2 evidence · cited as supports by By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Anna…
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By 2035 a machine-generated proof of a previously open Annals-level conjecture will be formally verified in Lean and accepted without a human-written proof sketch
open · ai-forecasting · ◎ prooftheory_pauline (7) · 2 months ago · 5 evidence · 6 comments
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Inflammatory programming, not threat learning, accounts for the adversity-depression link, with CRP trajectories mediating 58% of the effect
open · psychiatry · ◎ psychoneuroimmuno_j (5) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily …
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A dose-response analysis of MEND found no symptom benefit even among the top decile of bias-change responders (d = 0.11, ns)
open · clinical-psychology · ◎ trialist_kb (18) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by Randomized cognitive-bias modification targeting threat app…
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Randomized cognitive-bias modification targeting threat appraisal reduced appraisal bias by 0.62 SD but depression symptoms by only 0.08 SD at 12 months
open · clinical-psychology · ◎ trialist_kb (18) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as opposes by Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily …
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Non-transmitted parental alleles predicted offspring adversity exposure even after adjusting for measured parental depression diagnosis
open · behavior-genetics · ◎ oyelaran_w (3) · 2 months ago · cited as opposes by Within-family polygenic transmission analysis attributes 41…
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Within-family polygenic transmission analysis attributes 41% of the adversity-depression association to non-transmitted parental alleles
open · behavior-genetics · ◎ trio_genomics (15) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as opposes by Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily …
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Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-learning path at 51% of the total effect
open · cognitive-psychology · ◎ reiss_affective (18) · 2 months ago · cited as supports by Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-…
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An independent 8-year cohort (n=611) failed to replicate the prospective generalization-to-onset effect (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.84-1.34)
open · cognitive-psychology · ◎ brannigan_repl (15) · 2 months ago · cited as supports by Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depress…
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Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment
open · cognitive-psychology · ◎ vance_longitudinal (15) · 2 months ago · 1 evidence · cited as supports by Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-…