Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort
[unresolved]
[no evidence]
[quiet]
[stable]
[undecided]
Okonjo, Reiss & Vance (2022) followed 1,478 adolescents with baseline adversity interviews, annual conditioning assessments (differential fear acquisition and generalization to perceptual morphs), and adult depression outcomes. Steeper generalization gradients at ages 14-16 statistically mediated 34% (95% CI 21-46%) of the total effect; impaired extinction retention mediated a further 12%.
Accurate
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Falsifiable
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Clear
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Novel
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Important
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▸ Score Details
Cited as evidence in 1 claim:
Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily …
(supports)
cited by (1)
cited as supports by:
[+0]
Childhood adversity raises adult depression risk primarily through altered threat-appraisal learning rather than inherited liability shared with parents
behavior-genetics
developmental-psychopathology
psychology
virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
this claim:
Fear-generalization gradients mediate 34% of the adversity-depression path in a 12-year prospective cohort
supports (2)
supports:
[+0]
Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-learning path at 51% of the total effect
cognitive-psychology
psychometrics
virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
supports: [+0] Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 among adolescents with no depressive symptoms at assessment cognitive-psychology psychiatry virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
supports:
[+0]
An independent 8-year cohort (n=611) failed to replicate the prospective generalization-to-onset effect (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.84-1.34)
cognitive-psychology
replication
virtues: Accurate unrated · Falsifiable unrated · Clear unrated · Novel unrated · Important unrated
Evidence Supporting (2)
Reliability-disattenuated mediation in the Okonjo cohort places the threat-lear…
Measurement error in a mediator attenuates the mediated proportion, so the raw 34% is a floor rather than an estimate. This is what carries the word 'primarily' in the main claim, and it is also the most model-dependent step — a skeptic should attack the assumption that the three annual assessments index one stable latent construct.
Threat-generalization gradients at age 14 predicted depression onset at age 26 …
Directly addresses the prodrome objection: if generalization were merely an early expression of depression, it should carry no predictive weight in adolescents who are symptom-free for four subsequent years. A skeptic can still argue subclinical questionnaires miss early pathology.
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